My Social Security fix

FLAGSTAFF, Arizona, updated March 28, 2005 -- I can't resist the urge to recall the last column I wrote for my college newspaper (the first time I went through college, that is), in the spring of 1985.  It contained a brief section that began, "Everyone talks about the Social Security system's problems, but here's what should be done about them."

That piece, which ran in The Scarlet at Clark University, suggested a course of action remarkably similar to that being proposed by President Bush today: directing our FICA payments to personal accounts and holding them aside for the individuals who earned them, instead of doling the money out to present recipients.

A lock box for everyone!

As for where the money should go, I suggested what the President's proposal calls the "stable value" investment choice -- investing the money in government securities.  This option wouldn't generate eye-popping returns for the worker -- instead, you'd get a few percent a year, depending on where interest rates were -- but when you retired, your money would be there, waiting for you.  No need to tax your kids to death, no need to worry about politicians raiding the "lock box" to fund their pet projects, and no fiscal crisis.


It's tough being ahead of the curve!


My column suggested a painful strategy for implementing the plan: double the FICA tax at the outset, freeze the existing tax-as-you-go Social Security system and maintain payouts for current pensioners, and fund the personal-account system fully right off the bat.  Tough medicine, but hear me out.  The FICA tax would initially double, but it would immediately start going down, because the existing publicly-funded system would have no new participants -- and existing participants die every day.  Every time someone bought the farm, our taxes would go down.

So you'd have fewer and fewer oldsters to pay out of the Social Security trust fund as it exists today -- until a few decades down the road, there'd be none left, and the entire population would be working under the personalized-account system (retiring on money they themselves put away).  People who had already paid into the current Social Security system would simply have their balances frozen at what they've paid in.  (That means you'd get credit for the FICA taxes you've paid since you started working.)  They'd start accumulating funds in their personal accounts from now on.  So you'd have a transitional period of about 50 years, with people participating in both systems, until all the old-system pensioners were gone.

Democrats, chill out!

Think it can't be done?  Think again -- because it already has been done, albeit not exactly the way I'm suggesting.  This article from the National Center for Policy Analysis briefly describes the public pension system in Chile, which is -- you guessed it -- a privatized system, and it works much better than ours.

Personal accounts aren't just for third-world countries, either.  If you work for the State of Arizona, as I do, a percentage of your paycheck goes into the Arizona State Retirement System (participation is mandatory).  The state invests your money and holds it until you retire or leave state employment.  And when you leave, they send you a check.  I've been working for the state for a little over three years -- 20 hours a week at a modest salary -- and I have something over a grand in the system.  That's not much, but it's my money, earned by me and saved by the state.  The state matches what the employee contributes, and their half gets vested over the first ten years of your employment.  So I won't get their half in its entirety unless I work for the state until November 26, 2011.  The "something over a grand," however, is what I put in myself; so the state cuts me a check for that amount if I quit tomorrow.

The Democrats in Congress, and their liberal allies, are all up in arms about the idea -- but I don't get why.  They've mounted a very effective campaign to convince people that personal accounts are a bad idea.  Last week, I got an e-mail from the AFL-CIO's Working Families e-Activist Network, stating that such a plan would require "huge cuts in guaranteed benefits."

Well, if my plan (or that of President Bush) were adopted, the benefits would no longer be "guaranteed" in the sense that Social Security benefits are currently guaranteed -- but that's misleading.  As I mentioned above, by default, you'd get the "stable value" plan, under which your FICA tax payments would be invested in government securities -- US Treasury notes.  Those may not technically be guaranteed, but they're about as close to a lock as there is, in the world of investing.  Any finance student can tell you that the return on US Treasury notes is called the "risk-free rate of return," because there is absolutely no way Uncle Sam is going to default on his debt. (He may run up a lot of debt -- regardless of which party is in the White House -- but it does get paid back.)

The other way in which the personal accounts are "not guaranteed" is that, truth be told, there would be an avenue allowing you to invest some of your money in the stock market.  Ergo, you could lose some money there.  But I ask you, how bad is that?  It's only an option -- not a requirement.  Anyone too wimpy to accept some stock-market risk could simply opt for the stable value plan and get the risk-free rate of return, which would still be better than the 2% you get with the current Social Security system.

And over time, the stock market outperforms the Social Security trust fund, big-time.  Awhile back, my favorite Wall Street Journal columnist pointed out that during the 20th century, if you invested your money in the Dow Jones Industrials over a 30-year period, your money would be worth at least 1100% of what it was worth when you started -- and that's assuming you picked the worst 30 year period of the century! (That would mean that you bought the DJIA just before the crash of '29 and stood pat until 1959.)

Investing your money in stocks isn't a sure thing -- but over the long term, it's pretty close.

There's a lot of disagreement about the exact extent to which the Social Security system is in trouble, but there is no doubt that it's going to have to be fixed at some point.  It's not that it can't be done -- it's just a matter of having the political will to make it happen.  If Washington had taken my advice 20 years ago, we'd be almost halfway through the transition period to the fully personalized pension system -- and the FICA taxes, after the initial doubling to cover both systems at once, would have come back down several percentage points as the old retirees died off.

It's tough being ahead of the curve!

Copyright © 2005 Kafalas.com, LLC


Feedback?  Send us a letter to the editor, and we'll post it on the letters page. Letters may be edited for clarity or length.


Return to the home page